Surviving 23

As ‘22 draws to a bitter close and ‘23 begins I look back and forward trying to draw the necessary lessons and conclusions from the year that’s passed but also to engage in practice of soothsaying what may be upon us shortly.

As I write these lines, thinking about the 52 weeks behind, my mind drifts at a question that I have been asked many a time by the people around me, methodically, unfailingly, on Fridays: “What are your plans for the weekend ?!”, to which I would provide a constant answer: “Survive!”

Indeed that was a theme that I have carried (successfully, thus far) for several years and sense that preparing for Survival may come in handy, more so now than ever before.

“There is no such thing as tough. There is trained and untrained. Now which are you?”

― Man on Fire

The previous years were a whirlwind which in my view saw humanity’s values slowly degenerate to the point that we now have:

• Wars and high potentiality of nuclear wars

• Raging inflation

• Economic slowdown (globally)

• A failing monetary system that cannot be trusted as is probably beyond salvation

• Corrupt politicians and institutions that are nonetheless systemically important

• Inflated asset prices including housing bubbles (globally)

• Disintegration of international relations

• Breakdown of global supply chains (including for food and energy)

• Loose moral standards with truth, dignity and virtue being shunned in favor of ego-centric behavior and values

The list could go on but I do not want to trigger an anxiety attack in my few beloved readers. Incidentally, the media does a great job at doing that. Nevertheless, the same forces that caused the themes above are also setting the field for a few major developments already intertwining themselves in daily life:

• Unregulated AI and mass automation replacing jobs

• Uprooting of traditional agriculture to be ousted by new “technocratic” measures and practices

• Corruption and distortion of information to suit the prevailing establishment

• Replacing existing energy sources with less dense and less reliable ones

• Net zero… at any and all costs

• Fusion between state and private organizations (remember PPPs)... for the “greater good”

Again the list could go on but a quick look at the WEF (World Economic Forum) will fill in most of the gaps. Presumably they are applying the old Lincoln adage of predicting the future by creating it.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

― Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

The themes above along with many other governing dynamics have been very well explored by people far more qualified than I am, going deep into analyzing and explaining their virtues and perils. In spite of all this, at the core, I remain an optimist that the human spirit will prevail in spite of many ominous forces making up the backdrop as we head into the new year and indeed a new age. Fundamentally, I believe that the world functions best when truth prevails and there are encouraging signs that we are all awakening to the true challenges that as a society are facing together and will be elated when we will be able to identify their true cause.

I am hopeful that “ownership” will start being embraced by everyone, not as a capitalistic value, but in the sense that we must realize that our leading lights do not have society’s best interests at heart, in spite of the theatrical pantomime they put out every day to convince us of their high moral standing, and take the necessary actions to protect and ensure our well-being, indeed becoming the change we want to see in the world. On the investment front this would translate into owning high quality assets, which create value and are likely to continue to do so even during a hard economic environment, reliably, much like a wood burning stove. It is also important to recognize that inflation is a wildfire that will have devastating effects and things are likely going to get worse before they get better, thus I encourage seeking ways to protect purchasing power through hard assets that retain their properties and value through time and cannot be manipulated by financial forces. A last word of advice is to seek developing meaningful relationships with the folks around you, because in a crunch “we only have each other”. Historically this has been a deciding factor between survival and demise. While there are very powerful forces trying to sow division amongst people - gender ideology, religion, race, nationality, politics, etc. - it is important to all come to the right conclusion that what brings us together is stronger than what tears us apart and that if we are to advance we can only do so united.

Wishing all my readers a prosperous, healthy and hopeful new year!

Noah (Alex)